Aastha Spintex

The Ticker Tales take

A Gujarat-based cotton-yarn / textile-spinning issue that closed 1 Jul at about 5.05× subscribed (retail ~2.5×, NII ~8.3×). —— How we built the call: at the 2 PM lock on closing day our predicted listing pop was about +4.6%, split as GMP +4.6% (₹6.25 grey-market premium over the ₹136 price) + demand 0 (5.05× reads as 'on-track', not strong enough for a bump) + Anil Singhvi 0 (no clear call). That +4.6% sits inside our ±5% 'no real edge' dead-band, so the call locked at Neutral — not Subscribe. GMP then faded to about ₹3 (~2.2%) before listing. —— Prediction vs reality: we forecast roughly +4.6%; the stock actually listed at ₹130 on both NSE and BSE — a −4.4% discount to the ₹136 issue price. So the model ran about 9 points too optimistic — the thin GMP signal didn't hold on debut. The saving grace: we called it Neutral, not Subscribe, so we never promised a pop, and the stock clawed back to the 5% upper circuit intraday, so day-one investors weren't badly burnt. Final call — locked at close on 1 Jul; we don't revise a frozen call, even on a data correction.